Pricing New-Build Without Direct Comparable Sales

A new residential project has, by definition, no transaction history. The apartments are not built yet, none have been sold, and there are no registered sales to point to. Yet the developer, the bank and the first buyers still need a number — a sales price that is not merely optimistic but defensible. This is where pricing new-build differs from every other kind of valuation: you are working without direct comparable sales and must instead construct a credible reference base from the existing market.

The good news is that the absence of direct comps does not make the task a matter of guesswork. It makes it a craft. You select the most relevant transactions from the market, you understand exactly what sets them apart from your project, and you adjust for each difference openly and with documentation. The result is not a number pulled out of thin air, but a sales price with a traceable footprint — something an investor or a lender can verify line by line.

Why new-build cannot be priced like an existing home

The classic comps method rests on finding homes that resemble the one you are valuing and that have actually been sold. For new-build, that assumption breaks down on two counts. First, by definition there are no transactions on the object itself. Second, the homes that resemble it most on paper — newer construction in the same area — are often too few to form a statistical base, and they are rarely identical in condition, layout or energy class.

You therefore have to shift focus from “find identical transactions” to “find the most informative references and explain the distance to your object.” This is an analytical exercise, not a lookup. The fundamental principles of what makes two properties comparable at all — location, type, size, condition and transaction date — still apply, but they become adjustment axes rather than filters. If you want to revisit the fundamentals, read our walkthrough of what really makes two properties comparable before you dive into new-build-specific adjustments.

Three sources of references — in order of priority

When there are no direct comps, you build the base in layers. Each layer is less precise than the one before, but together they frame a realistic price.

1. Recent new-build transactions in the immediate area

The strongest signal is completed transactions on comparable new-build within the past 12-24 months in the same town or district. These transactions already carry a new-build premium and a modern standard, so the need for adjustment is smallest. Weight them highest — but be aware that projects are rarely identical in quality level, and that a transaction from a budget project cannot underpin the pricing of a premium project.

2. Active listings of comparable new-build

Where completed transactions are thin, active listings tell you something about the supply side and buyers’ willingness to pay right now. They are not realised prices, and there is typically a gap between asking price and final transaction — but on the existing market, active listings of comparable new-build are an important temperature gauge. Use them to validate the direction, not to set the number on their own.

3. Existing homes in the same segment — with a new-build premium on top

The broadest layer is transactions on existing homes of the same type and size in the same area. Here the volume of data is greatest, but so is the distance to the object. You establish a price level for the existing segment and then add a new-build premium on top. This is the most exposed part of the calculation, which is why it is also the part that needs the best documentation.

Rule of thumb: the further you move away from direct new-build transactions, the more adjustments you have to make — and the more thoroughly each adjustment must be justified. The precision lies not in the source, but in the adjustments.

The adjustments: new-build premium, condition and location

The craft itself is to translate the references into a price for your object through explicit adjustments. Three axes dominate.

New-build premium. New construction typically trades above comparable existing construction thanks to lower maintenance, a better energy class, warranty and a modern layout. The size of the premium varies markedly between segments and areas, so it must be derived from the actual new-build transactions in layer 1 — not set at a fixed percentage. Where layer 1 is thin, you estimate the premium from the spread between active new-build listings and the existing segment, and describe the uncertainty openly.

Condition and specification. Within new-build there is a wide gap between a basic project and one with a high material standard, large balconies, a lift and shared amenities. Adjust the reference up or down depending on where your project sits on the condition scale. Describe which specific elements carry the adjustment, so that it can be verified.

Location. Even within the same town there are price differences across street, floor, view and distance to the station and green spaces. The location adjustment is often the most subjective, and therefore the one where an explicit justification matters most for credibility.

The methodology for the selection itself — radius, time window and how many transactions you need — is the same as for any reference-based valuation. We have gathered it in a practical guide to how to select comparable sales for a credible valuation, which is worth having to hand before you settle the adjustments.

The documentation is the product

For new-build, the documentation is not an appendix — it is the entire deliverable. When there are no direct comps, it is precisely the traceability of your choices that separates a defensible sales price from a wish. A sales report for new-build should at a minimum show:

• Which references you chose, and why — source, transaction date and distance to the object.
• Each adjustment for new-build premium, condition and location, with amount and justification.
• The resulting price-per-square-metre range, not just a single point estimate — together with a confidence level that reflects how thin the reference base is.

A range with its associated uncertainty is more credible than a false precision down to the krone. When the references are few, say so, and let the range be wider. Our walkthrough of how to document comparables in a valuation report applies fully here — only with even greater weight, because the leap from reference to object is longer for new-build.

Remember at the same time that pricing always takes place on the existing market. You assess what the project would fetch if it stood finished and were put up for sale today — not what the market might do in two years. Forecasts have no place in a defensible sales price.

From manual reference hunting to a documented sales price

The manual exercise — finding new-build transactions, gathering active listings, establishing the existing segment’s level and building the adjustments on top — typically costs hours per project, and it is only as good as the data base you manage to assemble. That is exactly the work Arcili’s Projektvurdering (project valuation) automates: it pulls comparable sales and active listings from the existing market around the parcel, assesses the project “as if it stood finished today”, and delivers a price-per-square-metre range with a confidence level and a traceable reference base that you can drop straight into the sales report.

It does not replace your professional judgement of premium, condition and location — it gives you a documented starting point, so you can spend your time on the adjustments rather than on the data collection. If you want to see what it looks like on a real project, book a walkthrough.